On Monday, Moody’s Analytics reiterated what progressive economists have been saying for years: Wealthy individuals pocketed a significant share of the Bush tax cuts rather than reinvest that money in job-creating investments. What really drives investment, Moody’s says, is a growing economy that employs its people.

“I would tend to wonder how much the tax cut actually influences spending behavior,” said Chris Cornell, an economist who mined government reports back to 1989 for West Chester, Pennsylvania-based Moody’s Analytics. “Spending by the top 5 percent of households seems much more closely tied to business- cycle issues than it does to tax-cut issues.”

The Moody’s research covering couples earning more than $210,000 found that spending by the wealthy is more likely to be influenced by the ups and downs of the stock market than changes in income-tax rates.

Stock-market performance is the “primary factor that is driving the savings of the top 5 percent of households,” said Mustafa Akcay, economist and co-researcher of the savings data.

The wisdom of direct spending on job creation, and the folly of extending the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, is reinforced by sobering warnings about the global economy such as the one Monday from the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who said that the financial crisis “won’t be over until unemployment significantly decreases” and said that nations should spend more on job creation in order to regain financial stability. The comments are a sharp rebuke to conservatives in the United States and other industrialized countries who have used the global economic crisis to drive their agenda of dismantling government.

David Dyson, who co-owns an insurance company in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, said he’s more concerned about the state of the economy than the prospect of a tax increase, which he figures will cost him as much as $30,000.

“I have more than enough money to live on and probably will go out to eat as much as I do,” said Dyson, 58. On the other hand, he may decide to postpone building an addition to his house. “That’s primarily on hold because of the economy, not necessarily my taxes,” he said.


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